Climate change is complex and includes both directional changes (e.g., warming temperatures) and uncertainties (e.g., storm events). Thus, management planning and response must assess multiple potential future events and trends.
Recent research in the journal Climate Risk Management and co-authored by Schoodic Institute Director of Forest Ecology, Nicholas Fisichelli, examines the use of qualitative scenario planning and quantitative simulation modelling for natural resource decision making.
This study, led by USGS scientist Amy Symstad, shows the value of integrating multiple approaches for identifying counterintuitive ecosystem dynamics, refining understanding of complex ecosystem relationships, clarifying the magnitude and timing of changes, and refining management directions. The research is based on climate adaptation work in Wind Cave National Monument, South Dakota.